Heat

We anchor the room before scanning. KANCILS lays out the obvious so scanning, sense-making, and policy drafting have something to push against. (See Double Hexagon guide for the long form.)

For "global/regional response to chronic extreme heat by 2040":

• K — Keep. International climate-attribution science (World Weather Attribution, WMO). Existing labour conventions that can absorb heat (ILO C155, C161, C187). Regional cooling-coordination practices in countries with mature heat-action plans.
• A — Away with. The framing of heat as a natural disaster (which implies an event-shaped, charity-shaped response). The framing of heat as purely a city problem.
• N — Never. A future where heat-protective infrastructure becomes a class privilege without floor-level rights. A future where the workers who build the cooling infrastructure are the ones excluded from it.
• C — Challenging. Sovereignty objections to any cross-border labour rule. The mismatch between heat's pace (immediate) and treaty-making's pace (years). The carbon footprint of cooling.
• I — Important. Whether the answer is a rights frame (right to cool air, right to refuse unsafe work) or a trade frame (heat-content as a trade variable like emissions) will shape the next 30 years.
• L — Learn. That heat governance is mostly absent — which means there's design space for novel structures, not just modifications.
• S — Strengthen. Existing meteorological / health information exchange (WMO–WHO joint heat-health workstream). Regional bloc capacity (ASEAN, GCC, AU) to act before global agreement.

Try it yourself

Walk through KANCILS for "global/regional response to chronic extreme
heat by 2040." Give 3–5 concrete entries under each prompt. Resist
turning entries into slogans — name specific institutions and
mechanisms.

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A loose scan, with sources.

Environmental / Climate

• The 35°C wet-bulb temperature is widely treated as the limit beyond which the human body cannot cool itself by sweating, regardless of shade or hydration. Newer worker-health research places the practical threshold for sustained outdoor labour closer to 32°C wet-bulb under direct sun. (1, 2)
• The Persian/Arabian Gulf, the Indus River Valley (southern Pakistan), the densely populated agricultural belt of South Asia, and eastern China are projected to see the most frequent extreme wet-bulb events. (3)
• Some Gulf-region weather stations have already recorded wet-bulb temperatures above 31°C in long-running observations. (1)
• 2025 and early 2026 broke multiple national heat records globally; WMO confirms continued temperature anomalies.

Health

• In 2021, South Asia recorded ~209,500 deaths and Southeast Asia ~32,200 deaths attributed to high temperatures — together more than half the global heat mortality count. (4)
• Heat-attributable disease burden is concentrated in the elderly, outdoor workers, and people without cooling access — but elderly heat mortality is a growing category in wealthy countries (Europe 2003, 2022, 2025 are reference events).
• The WHO/WMO 2025 joint guidance on worker heat stress is the first such international guidance at that level. (5)

Economic / Labour

• The ILO estimates that more than 2.4 billion workers globally are exposed to excessive heat at work. (5, 6)
• Heat is projected to remove the equivalent of ~80 million full-time jobs of productivity from the global economy by 2030 under moderate warming. (6)
• 90% of countries have no heat-specific worker regulations. (5)
• US OSHA's heat rulemaking process continued through 2024–2025; state-level pre-emption is contested. The EU has begun considering an occupational heat directive (ETUC draft). (7)

Political / Governance

• In June 2025, Human Rights Watch documented the continued exposure of millions of Gulf-region migrant workers to life-threatening heat. (8)
• Kafala-system reforms in the GCC interact with heat in ways that are politically charged.
• The 2024 UN Secretary-General's "Call for Action on Extreme Heat" exists; binding instruments do not.

Social

• Cooling-as-a-service models (subscription air-conditioning) are scaling in India and South-East Asia.
• "Cooling poverty" has begun to appear in policy language alongside "energy poverty" — distinct from fuel poverty, with different politics.
• Heat-driven internal migration (rural-to-urban, agricultural-belt to coast) is documented but its long-distance / cross-border component is harder to attribute cleanly.

Technology

• Passive cooling tech (radiative cooling paints, reflective coatings, advanced shading) has matured significantly but deployment is uneven.
• Refrigerant policy (Kigali Amendment, HFC phase-down) interacts with active-cooling demand — more AC, lower-GWP refrigerants, but absolute electricity load grows.

+++ (Values / Demographic)

• The framing of cooling as a human right is rising in academic and NGO discourse — not yet in legally binding text.
• Older populations in temperate countries are heat-vulnerable in ways their housing stock wasn't built for; their voting power gives this a different politics than worker-heat issues in lower-income countries.

Gap check. Scan is heavy on physical and labour signals, lighter on agricultural / food-system signals (heat's effect on staple-crop yields, livestock mortality, fisheries) and on financial signals (insurance retreat from heat-exposed regions, sovereign-rating effects). A real exercise would correct both.

Try it yourself

For "global/regional response to chronic extreme heat by 2040", list
5 signals in each STEEP+++ category, sourced or marked as assumption.
Note two gaps: what kinds of signal are likely under-represented
because of where you read?

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Driver (centre of wheel): By 2035, wet-bulb temperatures regularly exceed 32°C during peak seasons in major South Asian and Gulf population centres, making sustained outdoor work physiologically unsafe for substantial parts of the year.

This isn't a forecast in the sharp sense — it's a plausible trajectory consistent with current physical models. The wheel traces what happens if this becomes the new normal.

FIRST ORDER

• F1. Outdoor labour (construction, agriculture, ports, logistics, fisheries) becomes restricted to early-morning and late-evening windows in affected regions. Effective working day compresses to ~4–6 hours.
• F2. Existing labour codes are stressed beyond their tolerance — particularly in the Gulf, where kafala-related contractual asymmetries make refusal-to-work claims difficult.
• F3. Cooling-as-infrastructure becomes a recognised category alongside water and electricity in some jurisdictions. Public cooling refuges proliferate in cities.
• F4. Cross-border labour migration patterns shift as construction in some Gulf states becomes physically untenable for parts of the year; demand for indoor / cooled work rises.
• F5. Heat-attributable mortality data become politically charged — challenged where they show governance failure, defended where they justify intervention.

SECOND ORDER — Branch 1: LABOUR & TREATIES

• F1 → S1.1. The ILO drafts a binding Convention on Heat at Work — or the EU acts first with a directive that effectively sets the global floor.
• F1 → S1.2. Sectoral collective agreements in construction, agriculture, and logistics include heat-day pay protections (paid heat-leave at wet-bulb thresholds).
• F1 → S1.3. Insurance rewrites — workers' comp and liability premiums in heat-exposed sectors reprice sharply. Some employers exit affected geographies.
• F1 → S1.4. A new class of seasonal climate refugee emerges in international labour mobility law — workers who travel out of regions during peak heat months.

SECOND ORDER — Branch 2: COOLING-AS-INFRASTRUCTURE

• F3 → S2.1. Cooling Rights appear in constitutional / statute form in some jurisdictions — a right to access cool space below a threshold during heat events.
• F3 → S2.2. Public cooling refuge networks scale (libraries, transit stations, mosques, temples, schools become formally part of the heat-response network).
• F3 → S2.3. Cooling-as-a-service (subscription, district cooling, co-op cooling) becomes a significant urban utility.
• F3 → S2.4. Heat-graded housing standards emerge — a "heat-rated" rental category like energy ratings now.

SECOND ORDER — Branch 3: FOOD & TRADE

• F1 → S3.1. Staple-crop yields in heat-exposed agricultural belts decline — South Asian wheat and rice, Sahelian millet, US Midwest corn at margins. Imports rise.
• F1 → S3.2. Heat-resilient cultivar trade becomes a strategic category (analogous to vaccine IP debates).
• F1 → S3.3. Food-export bans during national heat events become more frequent, fraying WTO commitments.
• F1 → S3.4. A "Heat Trade" line item appears in trade negotiations — cooling tech, refrigerants, heat-resilient infrastructure as bargaining categories.

THIRD ORDER — from S1.1 (binding heat-at-work convention)

• S1.1 → T1.1.a. A ratification gap opens — wealthier countries ratify, heat-most-exposed countries do not (politically expensive when domestic enforcement capacity is thin).
• S1.1 → T1.1.b. Trade-and-labour conditionality — importing blocs (EU, possibly US) begin to require heat-protection compliance certifications for goods produced in heat-exposed sectors.
• S1.1 → T1.1.c. Capital flight from heat-exposed industrial zones — some sectors relocate production to cooler climates. Bangladesh garment industry becomes a contested case.

THIRD ORDER — from S2.1 (Cooling Rights)

• S2.1 → T2.1.a. Litigation over Cooling Rights produces precedents — first cases likely in India under Article 21 (right to life) frameworks.
• S2.1 → T2.1.b. A cooling-poverty metric is added to multidimensional poverty indices — analogous to but distinct from energy poverty.
• S2.1 → T2.1.c. Tension between Cooling Rights and emissions targets — air-conditioning has a carbon cost; how to operationalise the right while staying within Paris-aligned budgets is the structuring policy fight of the 2030s.

The weird-but-plausible inventory

• Heat-protection compliance certification as a trade-conditionality category.
• Seasonal climate refugees as a labour-mobility class.
• Cooling-poverty as an indexed metric.
• Heat-rated rental housing.
• Bangladesh garment industry as a precedent-setting relocation case.

Try it yourself

Put the driver at the centre of a Futures Wheel.
- Ring 1: 5 first-order consequences
- Ring 2: 3 branches with 3–4 second-order consequences each
- Ring 3: 2–3 third-order branches that surface the most consequential
  policy questions
End with a weird-but-plausible inventory of 5 items you wouldn't have
raised in a normal conversation about heat.

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We cross into Hexagon 2. The discipline of Speculative Policy is to draft the text, not to call for it. The text should read as if you found it in a working group's circulating draft folder — neither manifesto nor newspaper article.

We pick the branch S1.1 + T1.1.b — a binding convention with trade-conditionality teeth — and draft an excerpt as it might circulate in 2034. We use the form of an ILO Convention, because ILO has the institutional muscle and the C155/C161 lineage to absorb a heat-specific instrument.

The artifact is constructed. It is not a real ILO document, and the institutions, ratification numbers, and references inside it are illustrative. Its job is to make the design choices argue with each other.

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International Labour Organization

CONVENTION CONCERNING THE PREVENTION OF OCCUPATIONAL HEAT RISKS AND THE PROTECTION OF WORKERS EXPOSED TO EXTREME HEAT

Convention No. 197 · 113th Session · Geneva, 8 June 2034

— Draft text as adopted at first reading; subject to ratification —

The General Conference of the International Labour Organization,

Having been convened at Geneva by the Governing Body of the International Labour Office, and having met in its One Hundred and Thirteenth Session on 5 June 2034,

Recalling Conventions No. 155 (1981) on occupational safety and health, No. 161 (1985) on occupational health services, and No. 187 (2006) on the promotional framework for occupational safety and health,

Recognising that more than 2.4 billion workers are now exposed to extreme heat in the course of their work, and that this number is projected to rise,

Noting the 2025 WHO–WMO joint guidance, the 2031 ILO Global Heat-at-Work Report, and the body of evidence linking exposure above wet-bulb 32°C to acute and chronic harm in physically active workers,

Affirming the right of every worker to a safe and healthy working environment as recognised in the 2022 amendment to the ILO Declaration on Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work,

Adopts this eighth day of June of the year two thousand and thirty-four, the following Convention, which may be cited as the Heat at Work Convention, 2034:

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PART I — GENERAL PROVISIONS

Article 1 — Scope

1. This Convention applies to all workers in all branches of economic activity, including the informal economy, where exposure to extreme heat is reasonably foreseeable.
2. For the purposes of this Convention:
   • "Extreme heat" means conditions equivalent to or exceeding a wet-bulb globe temperature of 32.0°C during sustained physical activity, or 35.0°C wet-bulb under rest, measured at the worker's location.
   • "Heat-exposed sector" means any sector designated under Article 4 by the competent national authority.

Article 2 — General obligation

Each Member which ratifies this Convention shall adopt, implement, and periodically review a national heat-at-work policy in consultation with the most representative organisations of employers and workers.

PART II — RIGHTS OF WORKERS

Article 5 — Right to know

Workers shall have the right to information, in a language and format they understand, about the heat conditions to which they are or may be exposed, the associated risks, and the means available to mitigate those risks.

Article 6 — Right to refuse

1. A worker who has reasonable cause to believe that the heat conditions at their place of work present an imminent and serious danger to life or health has the right to remove themselves from the situation without retaliation.
2. Removal under paragraph 1 shall not result in deduction of wages or termination of contract, and shall not entail liability where the worker acted in good faith.

Article 7 — Right to rest and cool

Workers in heat-exposed sectors shall be entitled to: (a) Paid rest breaks of not less than 10 minutes per hour of work at the threshold defined in Article 1(2), in a designated cool space; (b) Access to potable cool drinking water at no cost; (c) Acclimatisation periods for new entrants and returning workers, the length of which shall not be less than seven working days.

PART III — EMPLOYER AND STATE OBLIGATIONS

Article 9 — Threshold cessation of work

1. Where conditions exceed wet-bulb 34°C sustained over thirty minutes, work in physically active heat-exposed roles shall cease and resume only when conditions fall below 32°C wet-bulb for not less than fifteen minutes.
2. National authorities shall designate competent monitoring bodies.

Article 10 — Compensation for heat-day lost work

1. Where work is suspended under Article 9, workers shall be entitled to compensation equivalent to not less than 75 per cent of their ordinary wage for the period of suspension.
2. Member States may establish a Heat Insurance Fund, financed through tripartite contributions, to administer payments under this Article.

PART IV — REPORTING AND TRADE-RELATED MEASURES

Article 13 — Reporting

Member States shall report annually to the ILO on: (a) Heat-attributable workplace injury and fatality statistics, disaggregated by sector, age, and migrant status; (b) Measures taken to implement Articles 5–10; (c) Status of the Heat Insurance Fund, where established.

Article 14 — Cross-border conformity

1. Member States may, through bilateral or regional agreements, recognise compliance with this Convention as a condition for preferential treatment of imported goods or services from heat-exposed sectors.
2. Such measures shall be implemented in conformity with World Trade Organization rules and shall not constitute disguised restrictions on trade.

Article 15 — Migrant workers

The rights and protections set out in this Convention shall apply equally to migrant workers irrespective of their contractual or visa status, and Member States shall ensure that contractual arrangements (including, where applicable, sponsorship systems) do not impede their exercise.

PART V — FINAL PROVISIONS

[Articles 17–22 — standard ILO ratification, denunciation, and revision clauses; omitted from this draft summary.]

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Adopted by the Conference at its 113th Session on 8 June 2034. The authentic texts of this Convention are the English, French, and Spanish texts.

Ratified by 47 Member States as of 1 January 2035, including all EU Member States, Canada, Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and the Republic of Korea. The United States, India, Pakistan, the GCC States (excepting Qatar), and the People's Republic of China have not ratified.

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Why this artifact pulls weight.

The argument it provokes is not "should there be heat protection?" — almost no one says no to that question. The argument it provokes is which of these clauses is the load-bearing one:

• Article 6 (right to refuse) challenges every system where workers cannot exit without losing wages, visa status, or both. The most contested clause in any kafala-shaped labour market.
• Article 9 (threshold cessation) turns a public-health concept into a binding stop-work trigger. The science is solid (32°C wet-bulb is well-documented); the political economy of enforcement is not.
• Article 10 (compensation) turns heat into a paid-leave category. The financing question — through national funds, employer liability, public insurance — is the structuring fight.
• Article 14 (cross-border conformity) is the WTO-explosion clause. Trade-conditional labour rules are politically possible but legally fraught.
• Article 15 (migrant workers) does the work of saying that this is not a wealthy-country instrument with a quiet exception.
• The ratification list at the bottom is the most informative part. The countries missing tell you who has the most exposure and the least domestic alignment.

A Speculative Policy artifact works because the form is precise enough that it can be argued against on its own terms — not from a distance. That's the move.

Try it yourself

Pick one branch from your Futures Wheel and draft a Speculative Policy
artifact for it. Choose a real institution and form (ILO Convention,
EU Directive, US federal rule, UN resolution, ASEAN guideline).
- Write 8–12 articles
- Include at least one clause that will be the most contested
- Include a *ratification / compliance* table at the bottom — which
  actors signed, which didn't
- Keep the bureaucratic register; resist manifesto language
The discipline is form: real treaty / regulation language, not press
release vocabulary.

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(Optional — Speculative Policy can stop at the draft, but the next move is a 60-min reading session.)

• 6 participants: an employment lawyer, a climate scientist, a journalist covering migrant labour, a former garment-factory manager, a public-health officer, a trade economist.
• Setup: Hand each a printed copy. No briefing.
• Run: 10 min silent reading. 10 min: each names one clause they would line-edit and why. 20 min: open debate on the trade-conditionality clause (Article 14). 10 min reveal: this is a 2034 speculative draft. 10 min: what's missing, what's miscalibrated, what is now newly thinkable?

Look for: where does each profession's eye land first? (The lawyer probably goes to Article 6. The trade economist to Article 14. The journalist to the ratification list.) The cross-section between their readings is the rich data.

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Reflection prompts after running both the wheel and the policy artifact:

1. What did drafting the text surface that the wheel didn't? The wheel produced categories; the text exposed load-bearing clauses and forced choices about who is in scope, who pays, who enforces.

2. Which clauses were politically uncomfortable to even draft? Often the most informative. We hesitated on Articles 14 and 15. That hesitation is data.

3. What's the institutional realism? ILO Conventions move on a 15-year timescale at best from idea to ratification. The 2034 date is aggressive. A real reflection asks: what would have had to happen between 2026 and 2034 to make this thinkable?

4. What's the 2026 implication? Not "draft the treaty." Closer to: where is the constituency for any of this being built now? Worker unions, public-health bodies, regional blocs — who is doing the slow work that this draft would crown?

5. What would the counter-policy artifact look like? A 2034 GCC voluntary code, or a 2034 WTO advisory opinion against trade-conditional labour rules. Drafting the counter-artifact is the most disciplined way to test your first one.

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